NSE RoundUp! Nigerian equities net N165bn gains amidst global equities rally

Nigerian equities sustained a largely bullish performance during the immediate past week, leaving investors with net capital gains of N165 billion at the weekend. Benchmark indices at the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) showed widespread positive sentiment as quoted companies rounded off the submission of their third quarter earnings.

The deadline for the submission of the nine-month third quarter earnings for quoted companies elapsed on Tuesday October 31, 2017. Most active companies met the deadline.

The All Share Index-the value-based index that tracks share prices at the NSE, trended upward to 36,939.59 points at the weekend as against its week’s opening index of 36,462.26 points. This represented a week-on-week average return of 1.31 per cent.

Aggregate market value of all quoted companies correspondingly rose from its week’s opening value of N12.619 trillion to close the week at N12.784 trillion, representing net capital gain of N165 billion. The uptrend nudged the average year-to-date return at the Nigerian equities market to 37.45 per cent..

The performance of the Nigerian equities market highlighted the global demand for quoted shares during the week. From the advanced markets of Europe, Britain and America to the emerging markets of the Asia and Africa, global equities showed a largely positive performance.

In Africa, South Africa’s FTSE-JSE All Share Index appreciated by 1.6 per cent. Kenya’s benchmark NSE 20 Index posted a return of 4.2 per cent. Egypt’s EGX 30 Index gained 2.6 per cent while Ghana’s GSE Composite Index posted a modest week-on-week return of 0.6 per cent.

In the developed and global emerging markets, United Kingdom’s FTSE Index rose by 0.8 per cent. In United States of America, while the S & P 500 was unchanged, the US NASDAQ Index rose by 0.6 per cent. Germany’s XETRA Index posted a gain of 1.9 per cent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index rose by 2.4 per cent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index inched up by 0.6 per cent. France’s CAC 40 Index posted a modest gain of 0.2 per cent while India’s BSE Sens indicated above-average return of 1.6 per cent. However, Brazil’sIbovespa Index declined by 3.5 per cent. Russia’s RTS Index slipped by 2.2 per cent while China’s Shanghai Composite Index declined by 1.3 per cent.

Total turnover at the Nigerian stock market stood at 1.363 billion shares worth N17.714 billion in 21,891 deals last week in contrast to a total of 1.394 billion shares valued at N16.403 billion that exchanged hands in 19,195 deals two weeks ago. The financial services industry led the activity chart with 1.046 billion shares valued at N9.032 billion traded in 12,847 deals; thus contributing 76.79 per cent and 50.99% to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively. The consumer goods industry followed with 119.907 million shares worth N5.109 billion in 4,827 deals. The third place was occupied by healthcare industry with a turnover of 70.587 million shares worth N77.530 million in 349 deals.

The three most active stocks were FBN Holdings Plc, Diamond Bank Plc and United Bank for Africa Plc, which accounted for 497.016 million shares worth N2.947 billion in 4,205 deals, contributing 36.48 per cent and 16.64 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively.

Also traded during the week were a total of 1.16 million units of Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) valued at N6.404 million executed in 13 deals compared with a total of 104,544 units valued at N11.506 million traded in seven deals two weeks ago.

In the sovereign debt market, a total of 2,775 units of Federal Government bonds valued at N2.770 million were traded in four deals, compared with a total of 559 units valued at N485,803 traded in five deals penultimate week.

All sectoral indices at the Exchange closed positive with the exception of the NSE Consumer Goods Index, which slipped by 0.07 per cent. The NSE 30 Index-which tracks the 30 most capitalised companies at the Exchange, posted a gain of 0.92 per cent. The NSE Banking Index appreciated by 0.27 per cent. The NSE Insurance Index rose by 1.52 per cent. The NSE Oil and Gas Index posted a gain of 1.44 per cent while the NSE Industrial Goods Index rose by 1.45 per cent.

There were 37 advancers against 29 decliners last week as against 33 advancers and 32 decliners recorded in the previous week. University Press recorded the highest gain of 26.34 per cent to close at N2.59. Learn Africa appreciated by 19.05 per cent to close at N1 while Flour Mills Nigeria rose by 18.23 per cent to close at N35.47 per share.

On the downside, Newrest ASL led the decliners with a drop of 18.3 per cent to close at N6.43. Linkage Assurance dropped by 13.3 per cent to close at 78 kobo while Unilever Nigeria lost 6.5 per cent to close at N40 per share.

“In the coming week, we expect the positive performance to be sustained given the increasingly favourable condition in the oil market – a major anchor of the business cycle. Following a broadly positive performance and investor sentiment this week, we expect the market to sustain momentum as knock-on effect of the oil rally buoys investors’ appetite for Nigerian assets,” analysts at Afrinvest Securities stated.

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Nigeria: States and Fiscal Sustainability Plan

EDITORIAL

The states must devise measures to run on their own steam

Despite the recent euphoria that greeted the announcement that Nigeria had come out of recession, the most fervent optimist would concede that the economy is still in the doldrums. This is more obvious in several of the 36 states. That perhaps explains why the federal government has decided to put in place a regulatory and monitoring mechanism to track developments, aside reiterating that consideration for support to these states would be contingent on certain parameters.

At a workshop organised by the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC) on alternative sources of revenue generation for sustainable development in states and local government councils, the federal government said only states with sound financial discipline would now access further assistance from it. Fiscal discipline, improved revenue generation, rational allocation and efficient use of resources, said Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo "must be strategies adhered to by every tier of government if we must return to a path of sustainable growth."

In as much as we subscribe to that idea, we wait to see the implementation. In 2016, the federal government introduced some 22-point fiscal sustainability plan for states and local governments with a view to enhancing fiscal prudence and transparency in public expenditure. All state governments were expected to abide by the FSP's strategic objectives around the five key elements of accountability and transparency, increase in public revenue, rationalisation of public expenditure, public financial management reforms, and sustainable debt management. The ultimate objective of the FSP was to ensure that states were on the path of fiscal sustainability.

However, after more than a year of the existence of the FSP, many of these states are still the biggest source of corruption, waste and mismanagement. Unemployment has remained stubbornly high even as many of the states are unable to perform routine duties of picking up the bills at the end of the month. Only recently, President Muhammadu Buhari pleaded with the states to pay the salaries of workers at least with some of the refunds from the Paris Club.

The inability of the states to pay salaries had a year ago attracted the attention of the federal government and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in a special intervention package. The Debt Management Office (DMO) also helped them to restructure their commercial loans to the tune of N660 billion. There is no sign that all this had any salutary effect.

Besides, the failure of the states has also become a pressing concern in terms of generating internal revenues. Outside Lagos and perhaps Rivers States with impressive IGR, the remaining states rely more on the dwindling allocations from Federation Account to fund their services. This has led their economies to wither and decay. In addition, there are many leakages that needed blocking. This is rife more in the payroll and procurement policies.

It is also insensitive to continue with the generous pensions for ex-governors, many of whom are still drawing hefty salaries from government. Moreover, a situation where a governor appoints 500 personal aides is nothing but sheer irresponsibility. Top officials in some of these poor states are still ferried around in private jets and helicopters mostly to attend unnecessary social events, including marriage ceremonies and birthdays.

However, the chicken is finally coming home to roost with the outright economic bankruptcy of many of these states that now find it increasingly difficult even to pay salaries. Given the foregoing, we endorse the new resolve of the federal government that the states must put their house in order to further access help. They must clean up their financial system and go all out to collect tax from the citizenry as Lagos State is doing so admirably well. The states must be made to run on their own steam.

source: http://allafrica.com/stories/201709180874.html

Nigeria

Govt to Swear in New Lawyers, Including Professor Indicted for Sex Scandal

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Nigeria’s oil production cost down by 70.5% to $23 a barrel – NNPC

The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) has driven down the cost of crude oil production from $78 dollars per barrel as at August 2015 to $23 per barrel representing 70.5 per cent reduction.

The Group General Manager of National Petroleum Investment Management Services (NAPIMS), a unit of NNPC, Engr. Dafe Sejebor, who disclosed this during the inauguration of the Anti-Corruption Committee of the unit, said the country had saved a minimum of $3billion per annum.

Engr. Sejebor said NAPIMS arrived at the figure after looking at the difference between the $78 and $23 which represent the old and new cost of production in relation to the present daily average production in the country.

“If you knock down your cost of production from $78 per barrel to $23, take the difference and multiply by the average daily production, you will discover that we are saving a minimum of $3billion in the upstream for both Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) and Joint Ventures (JVs)”, he said.

The GGM informed that the target was to bring the cost of production to between $17 and $19 for onshore and offshore production respectively.

He commended the Federal Government for its support to the NNPC management in tackling the challenges in the petroleum industry, especially the cash call exit agreement signed in 2016 and the reduction of contracting circle from three years to six months.

On the new Petroleum Policy, Engr. Sejebor said it was necessitated by the increasing difficulty in operating the petroleum industry within the framework of the old Petroleum Act in the face of the delayed passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB).

He said the policy would restore investors’ confidence in the industry pending the full passage of the entire PIB by the National Assembly.

On the NAPIMS Anti-Corruption Committee, Engr. Sajebor urged the management and staff to let the principles of accountability, integrity, honesty and transparency be their watchword.

He charged them to generate positive ideas to help tackle the challenges facing the industry and help reverse its fortunes.

He admonished staff to key into the NNPC management’s zero tolerance for corruption.

It would be recalled that the Group Managing Director of NNPC, Dr Maikanti Baru, while inaugurating the Anti-Corruption Unit at Corporate Headquarters recently, had directed all the Strategic Business Units (SBUs) and Corporate Service Units (CSUs) to establish their own anti-corruption committees and NAPIMS was the first to comply with the directive.

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Nigeria can generate N56bn from coal briquettes in 3yrs – Expert

An economic expert has said that Nigeria can make a whopping N56billion in 3 years by reviving the coal industry, especially with the use of coal briquettes for industrial and domestic use, Leadership reports.

An industrial pharmacist and specialist in marketing new technologies, Mr Emmanuel Nwankwo, said Nigeria really needs to go back to basics, which is the use of coal since it has it in abundance, starting from Enugu State.

He said that the use of coal briquettes will help in the diversification agenda of the federal government, especially as the global market for oil and gas appears to be shrinking by the day.

The expert said diversification of coal into other areas that will move the economy is necessary because the use of coal has now been totally repackaged, redefined and there is a brand new analysis of how to use more cleaner coal that will erode all the negativity it had before.

Nwankwo continued: “It is a brand technology, innovation to use coal for domestic, household, industrial as well as institutional use consumption. We use this coal briquettes and the biggest advantage is that it will stop people from cutting down trees.”

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Bear market: Short term investors can reduce exposure — Alangrange CEO

      The inflation figure just released by the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, showed a declining inflation but rise in food inflation, which could affect the investible income of retail investors and their willingness to participate in the capital market. In this interview, Mr. Samson Amedu, Managing Director/CEO, Alangrande Securities Limited, said that food inflation as a single factor cannot determine the direction of the market. He also provided insight on how best investors could manage their portfolio to reap maximum benefit. By Nkiruka Nnorom


      IS the impact of the rising food inflation not capable of reversing the progress made in the equities market already?

      First of all, there are a number of factors that influence the prices of shares in the market. A number of times, it is a combination of factors that affect the market. Sometimes, some factors could be so significant at a particular time that they may move the market either up or down. Factors that influence share prices include what is called company’s specific factors. This includes the likes of earnings per share, which measures the profitability and how well a company is doing, price earning ratio and debt equity ratio. Another thing that affects share price include domestic factors. Here you talk about regulations and government policies. Regulations may include monetary policy, inflation and the rest of it. It also include regulations that regulators come up with. There are also other factors like industry specific factors. Some sectors will be more affected by some specific factors that are related to them. For example, textile and airline. Due to some certain factors that are specific to textiles, almost all the textile companies are dead today and the same for the airline. There was a time the banking sector was faced with certain challenge that almost all the banks were declaring losses and that affected the performance of the banking index before the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria, AMCON, was set up. Now, there is also the demand and supply factor and investors’ perception of the companies. When investors perceive that the share price of a particular company is too high or the earning per share is too low, before you know it, the impact will start showing in the share price. There are other factors like the geopolitical factor, things like terrorism, natural disaster and globalisation. Part of the geopolitical factors also include inflow of capital from foreign portfolio investors. Where is there is an influx of foreign capital into a particular market, it affects the prices of stocks generally. So, rise in food inflation as a single factor cannot decisively determine comprehensively the direction of the market; it is only a combination of factors that can do that.

      What are some of the things that have shaped activity in the equities market this year? 

     The sudden positive performance of the market as witnessed today is actually as a result of two major factors. Initially, you can say the foundation of it was fundamentals; companies were churning out good results during the earning season. If you look at it, even as at March ending and early April, the market was still at a loss, but immediately the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, came up with the NAFEX window, it became very easy for foreign investors, who before the introduction of the new window could not take out their money, to resume investment in the market and also take out their money with ease. So, suddenly, there was a huge increase in portfolio investment. So, that inflow that came in led to a sudden rise in the market . From the moment the CBN made that pronouncement up till now, over $1.9 billion dollars has entered into the market. So, that had a huge impact and lifted the market to what you see today. The second factor has to do with Morgan Stanley Capital International, MSCI. Due to the perception of the market, Morgan Stanley removed Nigeria from its frontier index to stand alone start-up. Once we were on that start-up, a number of foreign investors could not invest because they make their decision based on the index. But immediately the NAFEX window was introduced, Morgan Stanley came up with reclassification and increased Nigeria’s weighting to about 7.9 percent. So, once that reclassification was done, there was increase in investment of about 17 stocks the index track and that led to the sudden rise you saw in the market.

 Now, that we have seen significant rebound in the market, how best do you think investors should approach the market to reap maximum benefit from their investment?

 For those who just entered the market, probably earlier in the year, depending on the sectors and the stocks, they are making money. Investors that have not yet exited the market are making money. First of all, the best strategy will depend on how an investor sees the market. Is it going up? 

Objective of the investment

 If not, if the understanding is that the market may not really go up between now and end of the year, depending on the objective of your investment, if you are short term investor, you can realize your profit and keep the money in the money market. But if the traditional behavior of the market comes to play, then it makes sense for short term investors to reduce the extent of their exposure in the market and wait till December or early November to reinvest. For long term investors who entered the market longer than now, the downturn may not really affect them much. For those long them investors, if the explanation I gave about the asset reclassification by Morgan Stanley is going to be positive, it makes sense to still buy. This is because if that happens and it is positive, we will still see more foreign portfolio managers still investing because they need to increase their weighting on some of those stocks tracked by MSCI and in the course of doing that, it will move the market further up.  





source:  https://www.vanguardngr.com/2017/09/bear-market-short-term-investors-can-reduce-exposure-alangrange-ceo-2/

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